Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
