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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct path: the coach who engineered the largest improvement is handed the award. In practice, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or merely the greatest surprise.

However the latest field is fundamentally unique. The list of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions fading and recent strugglers rising together. In an normal season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this wild and thrilling season, he's up against several other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to spin big plays from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current is not a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still